If things go according to plan, the streets of Kano City will be littered tomorrow with shredded campaign vests, rumpled campaign wrappers, trampled red caps, broken skulls and injured limps in an Apocalyptic clash between Kwankwasiyya and Gandujiyya, two factions of the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] respectively loyal to former governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and current governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Both factions are determined to go ahead with rallies provocatively fixed for the same day, same venue, same time and under the same party flag, supposedly in preparation for February 10 local government elections but actually as muscle flexing and test run for this year’s party primaries and next year’s general elections. Neither side wants to be the first to blink, since this is a contest of egos. The police are not helping matters with their warning to Kwankwasiyya to stay away. Police’s posture will only harden positions since Kwankwasiyya sees it as taking sides. While Kwankwaso keeps his distance from the State House, Ganduje performs almost every Friday prayer at State House and is prominent among the governors campaigning for President Buhari’s second term. By now Nigerians are used to seeing political godsons turn against their godfathers. Since 1999, every powerful Nigerian politician who anointed another person as a state governor or as president lived to regret it, with a few exceptions. I have counted nearly thirty Nigerian godfathers that were repudiated by their anointed godsons soon after they won elections. The most notorious case was in Anambra State in 2003 when Governor Chris Ngige was abducted by his godfather, Chris Ubah. Ngige had even been made to write a post-dated resignation letter in case he failed to toe the line. This experience did not stop Governor Willie Obiano from repudiating his godfather, former governor Peter Obi, as soon as he took over in 2014. In neighbouring Enugu State, Governor Chimaroke Nnamani anointed his chief of staff Sullivan Chime to succeed him in 2007 but the godson soon rebelled. In 2007 outgoing Abia State Governor Orji Uzor Kalu anointed two governors, Ikedi Ohakim in Imo and Theodore Orji in Abia. The latter was elected when he was cooling his heels in prison but both men quickly rebelled against Kanu. In Bayelsa State, the Jonathans kicked out Governor Timipre Sylva to make room for Seriake Dickson but by 2015 they were ready to kick out Dickson too. He was only saved because the Jonathans were kicked out before him. In Oyo State, godfather Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu had a nasty fight with his godson Governor Rashidi Ladoja, allegedly over the sharing of monthly security vote. Godfathers repudiating godsons is strictly pan-Nigerian. In Kwara State, Oloye Dr. Olusola Saraki became the most serially repudiated godfather in Nigerian politics. Between 1979 and 2003 he anointed five governors in Kwara. Four of them, Adamu Attah, Cornelius Adebayo, Shaba Lafiagi and Admiral Mohammed Lawal fell out with Oloye fairly quickly. The fifth, Oloye’s own son Dr. Bukola Saraki also fell out with him in 2010 over succession. In Kebbi State, Governor Sa’idu Dakingari spectacularly fell out with the man who anointed him, former governor Muhammed Adamu Aleiro. In Zamfara, Governor Mamuda Shinkafi quickly repudiated Alhaji Ahmed Sani, Yariman Bakura, who made Shinkafi the only deputy governor in Nigeria to become a governor in 2007. In Kaduna State, Governor Ahmed Makarfi anointed Mohammed Namadi Sambo to succeed him with only weeks to the election but the two men quickly fell apart. The same thing happened in Nasarawa State where Governor Aliyu Doma quickly fell out with his anointer, former governor Abdullahi Adamu. In Adamawa, Governor Murtala Nyako’s honeymoon with godfather Prof Jibril Aminu was very brief and in Gombe, Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo quickly turned against his godfather, former governor Mohammed Danjuma Goje. In Borno, the falling out between godfather Ali Modu Sheriff and godson Governor Kashim Shettima took a while to unfold. Not just governors but presidential godsons also rebelled. In 2007 departing President Olusegun Obasanjo personally handpicked Alhaji Umaru Yar’adua to succeed him and also picked Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as the deputy. Obasanjo then made himself chairman of PDP’s board of trustees and said that board would henceforth make national policy while the government implements it. As soon as Yar’adua was sworn in, he repudiated that arrangement and the godfather-godson fight began. When Jonathan succeeded Yar’adua he also fell out with the godfather. Thus, godfather-godson quarrel in Nigeria occurs at all levels of government, in all regions, in all tribes, in most states and in all seasons. To be sure, there were a few successful cases of anointment in Nigerian politics. The most successful godfather in Nigeria, the one who experienced the fewest rebellions in relation to the number of governors he anointed, is Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Though he serially installed governors in Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo states, none rebelled openly, though there was underground friction with Babatunde Raji Fashola and Dr. Kayode Fayemi. Other successful godfather/godson cases were Vice President Atiku Abubakar/Governor Boni Haruna in Adamawa; Vice President Namadi Sambo and Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero in Kaduna; ex-governors James Ibori/Emmanuel Uduaghan in Delta; former governors Ibrahim Idris/Idris Wada in Kogi as well as Dr. Bukola Saraki/Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed in Kwara. Also quiet, so far, are Governor Aminu Tambuwal/former governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko in Sokoto; General T.Y. Danjuma and Governor Darius Ishaku in Taraba; and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole/Governor Andrew Obaseki in Edo. To that extent the political fallout between Kwankwaso and Ganduje was not a novelty in Nigerian politics. What is new is the too early start of the fall out, the level of mobilisation, the firm consolidation of the two camps and the potential for violence as evidenced by their rhetoric and gambits. A godfather is understandably offended when, after lending his name, time, money, political experience, political network and other resources to anoint a godson, the latter pulls away once he is ensconced in Government House. Many godfathers sulk in private and pray that the godson comes to grief one day. Some take vengeful steps where they can. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is however a different kind of godfather. During his second term as governor he created a movement called Kwankwasiyya designed to ensure that he sits on top of the pile of Kano politics for years to come. The movement adopted a red cap as its symbol and its name was emblazoned at the top of school buildings and hospitals. Its leader then lunged for the presidency and he finished second in the APC primary, beating Atiku Abubakar to third place. Meanwhile he arranged for a stop gap senatorial candidate, who quickly resigned and gave him the ticket to the Senate. Kwankwaso is angry that President Buhari did not accord him a prime place in the federal administration in recognition of his second place finish in the primary. On top of that, Governor Ganduje began to repudiate Kwankwaso’s legacy and question his record in 2011-15 which had been widely touted as stellar. Kwankwasiyya’s top political goal for 2019 is to bring down Ganduje, demolish his movement and install a loyal Kwankwasiyya man in the Government House. By dividing Kano State’s APC down the middle, Kwankwasiyya could be setting the party up for possible defeat in 2019, possibly by another Kwankwaso opponent, former governor and state PDP leader Malam Ibrahim Shekarau. It could even team up with one opponent against another and could be setting the stage for defection to another party. For President Buhari, who is already uncertain whether North Central and South West will remain with him in 2019, dividing up Kano’s huge vote bank is a huge risk indeed. It is his biggest 2019 political risk factor after Tinubu, Third Force and herdsmen/farmers clashes.
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