Nigeria Inspector General of Police and Kano show of shame.

There is no doubt that Nigeria is gradually sliding into a police state going by the stomach-churning advice by the Kano State Commissioner of Police, Mr. Rabiu Yusuf, that a former state governor and current senator, Rabiu Kwankwaso, should shelve his scheduled January 30 visit to Kano, his home state. What is going on, for God’s sake, in Kano State? Why have the police, acting in tandem with the state governor, Abdullahi Ganduje, decided to declare Kwankwaso more or less a persona non grata in his own state? The police are trying to unconscionably abridge the freedom of movement and civil liberties of Kwankwaso. But as of the time of writing this piece, Kwankwaso had reportedly said the police cannot stop him from going to Kano to peacefully see his constituents. He is very right on that score. The former governor should not be left alone to fight this unconstitutionality. All well-meaning Nigerians must condemn the unsophisticated approach by the state to suppress Kwankwaso and upstage his seemingly robust political structure. Advising the former governor to suspend his planned visit to Kano is patently wrong. It offends the spirit of fair dealing. That piece of advice is bad news which has the potential of far-reaching implications for the polity. If the police gambit is allowed to succeed, the state governor can continue to influence or instigate the police commissioner to adopt the same strategy over and again to perpetually keep Kwankwaso away from the state. At the moment, there is tension in a vast majority of the states and the police commissioners in those states have not advised or barred representatives of the people or politicians from their states. Since it is an open secret that Kwankwaso, who gave President Muhammadu Buhari a good fight for the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress in the 2014 presidential primary, is nursing a presidential ambition in 2019, the strategy of the chief security officer of the state and the police commissioner might have been orchestrated to terribly hurt Kwankwaso’s political and logistical mobilisation that should naturally begin from his home state. But the government’s action to unnerve Kwankwaso, to say the least, is an affront on democratic ethos. Popular participation in democratic engagements should neither be under enemy control nor held hostage by a self-imposing police state as it is grotesquely manifesting in Kano. This official disposition is primordial, anachronistic and tendentious in its form, shape and texture as well as counter-productive to the democratic testimonial of the APC-controlled government. How sadly have the police become petty, partial and partisan of the ruling government such that a leader of the ruling party can be subjected to this kind of treatment? But the joke is on the police, the government and the APC: first, that they do not have the capacity or the temperament to accommodate seeming opposition from within their ranks; and, second, that they cannot ensure simple security for Kwankwaso, his supporters and public facilities. By the way, is Kwankwaso going to Kano to organise or lead a violent protest? Certainly not, except agents of the state decide to infiltrate the group of his supporters and try to precipitate violence from within in order to justify the preconceived advice by the police to keep him away; and, for as long as possible. If that is not the case, I do not see anything difficult in the police providing protection for Kwankwanso and the crowd of supporters that would welcome him to Kano. After all, the police have been giving protection to pro-government protest marches. Why have they considered Kwankwaso’s historic visit to Kano a difficult event to handle? If the fear expressed by the police commissioner as to the possibility of disgruntled elements hijacking the visit is real, then what that simply explicates is that the disgruntled elements would certainly not be from the camp or among the supporters of Kwankwaso but from the governor’s camp. It is not a secret that there is no love lost between the two leaders. It therefore will not cost the state government too much to sustain the grounds of “tensed atmosphere” to keep Kwankwaso away from the state. Apparently, Ganduje is gripped by a morbid fear occasioned by the popularity of his former boss and predecessor in office. Kwankwaso’s political structure in Kano is pervasive and solid. Ganduje’s deputy, Prof. Hafiz Abubakar, is a product of that structure. Following the cold war, Ganduje has reportedly sidelined Abubakar. The professor, according to media reports, has said he would dump Ganduje and return to the classroom at the Bayero University at the end of his first term in 2019. The governor is fast losing grips. But he has quickly done a few things in order to preserve his position: alignment with President Muhammadu Buhari in the calculations that he would be able to use that to clinch the party’s ticket and also re-election. He also enlisted in the group of seven governors that stormed Abuja while the 73 Nigerians massacred in Benue by Fulani herdsmen were being buried in Makurdi, to mollycoddle the President to run again for the Presidency in 2019. Clinching a second term in office may not be a smooth ride for Ganduje given the nature of Kano politics, which predisposes the people to most of the times diverge from mainstream parties that hold the levers of power in Abuja. Such unpredictable political tenacity to embrace opposition politics has, indeed, defined Kano as the archetypical hotbed of North-West politics. Kwankwaso himself was a victim in 2003 when he was denied re-election by the people who voted for Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau on the platform of the All Nigeria People’s Party instead. This is the historical example, nay reality that Ganduje will have to contend with. There is no doubt that Kwankwaso has become the real issue in Kano politics. As it is, even when he has not made any statements that could be construed to be critical of the APC-led Federal Government, the fear of his deft political moves has become the beginning of wisdom to the party leadership in the state. Why should they not fear Kwankwaso who, as governor, delivered about two million of Kano votes, even if somewhat controversial, to Buhari in the 2015 presidential election? But the way they are going about trying to tame him is certainly a crying aberration in a democracy.

Loyal Godsons and rebellious ones(kano case)

If things go according to plan, the streets of Kano City will be littered tomorrow with shredded campaign vests, rumpled campaign wrappers, trampled red caps, broken skulls and injured limps in an Apocalyptic clash between Kwankwasiyya and Gandujiyya, two factions of the ruling All Progressives Congress [APC] respectively loyal to former governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and current governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. Both factions are determined to go ahead with rallies provocatively fixed for the same day, same venue, same time and under the same party flag, supposedly in preparation for February 10 local government elections but actually as muscle flexing and test run for this year’s party primaries and next year’s general elections. Neither side wants to be the first to blink, since this is a contest of egos. The police are not helping matters with their warning to Kwankwasiyya to stay away. Police’s posture will only harden positions since Kwankwasiyya sees it as taking sides. While Kwankwaso keeps his distance from the State House, Ganduje performs almost every Friday prayer at State House and is prominent among the governors campaigning for President Buhari’s second term. By now Nigerians are used to seeing political godsons turn against their godfathers. Since 1999, every powerful Nigerian politician who anointed another person as a state governor or as president lived to regret it, with a few exceptions. I have counted nearly thirty Nigerian godfathers that were repudiated by their anointed godsons soon after they won elections. The most notorious case was in Anambra State in 2003 when Governor Chris Ngige was abducted by his godfather, Chris Ubah. Ngige had even been made to write a post-dated resignation letter in case he failed to toe the line. This experience did not stop Governor Willie Obiano from repudiating his godfather, former governor Peter Obi, as soon as he took over in 2014. In neighbouring Enugu State, Governor Chimaroke Nnamani anointed his chief of staff Sullivan Chime to succeed him in 2007 but the godson soon rebelled. In 2007 outgoing Abia State Governor Orji Uzor Kalu anointed two governors, Ikedi Ohakim in Imo and Theodore Orji in Abia. The latter was elected when he was cooling his heels in prison but both men quickly rebelled against Kanu. In Bayelsa State, the Jonathans kicked out Governor Timipre Sylva to make room for Seriake Dickson but by 2015 they were ready to kick out Dickson too. He was only saved because the Jonathans were kicked out before him. In Oyo State, godfather Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu had a nasty fight with his godson Governor Rashidi Ladoja, allegedly over the sharing of monthly security vote. Godfathers repudiating godsons is strictly pan-Nigerian. In Kwara State, Oloye Dr. Olusola Saraki became the most serially repudiated godfather in Nigerian politics. Between 1979 and 2003 he anointed five governors in Kwara. Four of them, Adamu Attah, Cornelius Adebayo, Shaba Lafiagi and Admiral Mohammed Lawal fell out with Oloye fairly quickly. The fifth, Oloye’s own son Dr. Bukola Saraki also fell out with him in 2010 over succession. In Kebbi State, Governor Sa’idu Dakingari spectacularly fell out with the man who anointed him, former governor Muhammed Adamu Aleiro. In Zamfara, Governor Mamuda Shinkafi quickly repudiated Alhaji Ahmed Sani, Yariman Bakura, who made Shinkafi the only deputy governor in Nigeria to become a governor in 2007. In Kaduna State, Governor Ahmed Makarfi anointed Mohammed Namadi Sambo to succeed him with only weeks to the election but the two men quickly fell apart. The same thing happened in Nasarawa State where Governor Aliyu Doma quickly fell out with his anointer, former governor Abdullahi Adamu. In Adamawa, Governor Murtala Nyako’s honeymoon with godfather Prof Jibril Aminu was very brief and in Gombe, Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo quickly turned against his godfather, former governor Mohammed Danjuma Goje. In Borno, the falling out between godfather Ali Modu Sheriff and godson Governor Kashim Shettima took a while to unfold. Not just governors but presidential godsons also rebelled. In 2007 departing President Olusegun Obasanjo personally handpicked Alhaji Umaru Yar’adua to succeed him and also picked Dr. Goodluck Jonathan as the deputy. Obasanjo then made himself chairman of PDP’s board of trustees and said that board would henceforth make national policy while the government implements it. As soon as Yar’adua was sworn in, he repudiated that arrangement and the godfather-godson fight began. When Jonathan succeeded Yar’adua he also fell out with the godfather. Thus, godfather-godson quarrel in Nigeria occurs at all levels of government, in all regions, in all tribes, in most states and in all seasons. To be sure, there were a few successful cases of anointment in Nigerian politics. The most successful godfather in Nigeria, the one who experienced the fewest rebellions in relation to the number of governors he anointed, is Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. Though he serially installed governors in Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Osun, Ekiti and Ondo states, none rebelled openly, though there was underground friction with Babatunde Raji Fashola and Dr. Kayode Fayemi. Other successful godfather/godson cases were Vice President Atiku Abubakar/Governor Boni Haruna in Adamawa; Vice President Namadi Sambo and Governor Mukhtar Ramalan Yero in Kaduna; ex-governors James Ibori/Emmanuel Uduaghan in Delta; former governors Ibrahim Idris/Idris Wada in Kogi as well as Dr. Bukola Saraki/Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed in Kwara. Also quiet, so far, are Governor Aminu Tambuwal/former governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko in Sokoto; General T.Y. Danjuma and Governor Darius Ishaku in Taraba; and Comrade Adams Oshiomhole/Governor Andrew Obaseki in Edo. To that extent the political fallout between Kwankwaso and Ganduje was not a novelty in Nigerian politics. What is new is the too early start of the fall out, the level of mobilisation, the firm consolidation of the two camps and the potential for violence as evidenced by their rhetoric and gambits. A godfather is understandably offended when, after lending his name, time, money, political experience, political network and other resources to anoint a godson, the latter pulls away once he is ensconced in Government House. Many godfathers sulk in private and pray that the godson comes to grief one day. Some take vengeful steps where they can. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is however a different kind of godfather. During his second term as governor he created a movement called Kwankwasiyya designed to ensure that he sits on top of the pile of Kano politics for years to come. The movement adopted a red cap as its symbol and its name was emblazoned at the top of school buildings and hospitals. Its leader then lunged for the presidency and he finished second in the APC primary, beating Atiku Abubakar to third place. Meanwhile he arranged for a stop gap senatorial candidate, who quickly resigned and gave him the ticket to the Senate. Kwankwaso is angry that President Buhari did not accord him a prime place in the federal administration in recognition of his second place finish in the primary. On top of that, Governor Ganduje began to repudiate Kwankwaso’s legacy and question his record in 2011-15 which had been widely touted as stellar. Kwankwasiyya’s top political goal for 2019 is to bring down Ganduje, demolish his movement and install a loyal Kwankwasiyya man in the Government House. By dividing Kano State’s APC down the middle, Kwankwasiyya could be setting the party up for possible defeat in 2019, possibly by another Kwankwaso opponent, former governor and state PDP leader Malam Ibrahim Shekarau. It could even team up with one opponent against another and could be setting the stage for defection to another party. For President Buhari, who is already uncertain whether North Central and South West will remain with him in 2019, dividing up Kano’s huge vote bank is a huge risk indeed. It is his biggest 2019 political risk factor after Tinubu, Third Force and herdsmen/farmers clashes.